How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.